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BofE's Mark Carney On Challenges To The Economy

posted 18 Apr 2013, 14:28 by Mpelembe Admin   [ updated 18 Apr 2013, 14:44 ]

Christine Laguard has been talking recently about how the global economy is operating at three speeds, is she right and what speed is Canada?


She's right well. There's three classes of economies in the global economy. Certainly the crisis economies, they're well known, included the US and I think the the insight from Christine Lagarde and the IMF is that the US is breaking out of that pack of crisis economies which very importantly include obviously the Euro-zone at the center -- the UK. And with a very long legacy, Japan

The important development that gathered pace, not in the headline numbers--I would distinguish between the speed as opposed to the class in the quality of the growth. The the important development -- in our opinion over the course last twelve months or so is that the quality of private sector growth in the United Stateshas picked up. And so even though 2013 is not going to be a spectacular year for the U.S. economy because we see at least almost, one in the quarters in percentage points of fiscal drag, against that there is a continued recovery on the private side which is important work -- it's important for Canada obviously. 

Now the third so so the US is moving towards that class of advanced economies that have well functioning financial systems where private credit is growing. And where there is, there is reasonably solid investment growth. The third class obviously as emerging markets where we've seen a return to firmer growth not the spectacular comeback that we saw in the immediate aftermath of 2008. But even with the recent figures in China, we see more constructive growth outlook in most of the emerging markets so yes, there is that differentiation.